Sincere Newbie Question to the Long Timers

[Deleted]

I post this with trepidation, lol!  (insert nervous laughter here) I surely understand the annoyance of anyone new to the chase for those who have been here for a long time.  I hope this question is ok as I am directing it at those who have been doing this for at least a year, or longer.  I see many posts on 4 different forums, (Admittedly yes I have been a lurker for about a month, now.) of people who sound very confident in their solves.  They say things like "waiting for the snow to melt" and "I know something you don't know" etc etc.  I live very far away, but I have a trip planned for botg this summer.  My question is this.  Do people talk like this at this time of year, every year, or is there really truly something different in the air this time?  If these people really know, then why are they letting snow stop them.  FF said "if you know precisely where it is you can probably retrieve it in any weather."  If I lived close by, and felt this certain, there would be nothing to stop me from trying to get there.  Now I am one of those who believes the TC is much closer to the road than many might think, so I am not considering going DEEP into the mountains and woods and snow.  For anyone who feels confident and who thinks it's much closer to the road, why would they wait for the snow to melt?  Am I missing something?  Ok, that was more than one question.  

Thanks,
Eagerly waiting for SUMMER :-) 

[goldwatch]

Hi and welcome, eagerly.
First of all, from my experience, this happens every year. It's sometimes the same people and sometimes different. Some give up and others feel they have added to and overcome obstacles in their solve.

I think the biggest problem with the snow, if you can get to your spot, is that it will cover the chest or it's location. So unless you know exactly where it is, within a few feet, trying to dig it out could be a very extensive dig.
I don't think most people have an exact spot to go to, anyways. I think most are looking for a "blaze" or some other indication. If that's covered up, how would they find it?

But most of all, I think most people's solves are off road and away from access in the winter time.

[Deleted]

Thank you so much for taking time to respond. That all makes sense and gives me a little relief, lol! Airline tickets are already purchased, but all those posts made me worried I may need to go sooner to have any chance at all. I'll be the first to say, I am totally 100% clueless and naive about the weather situation. I'm a southern girl and we are lucky to get any snow at all (none this winter) in my neck of the woods. I can't even wrap my head around "# feet of snow."

Thank you for the warm welcome. :-)

[zaphod73491]

Eagerly: I echo BuckeyeBob's sentiments. Bold winter claims are an annual Fenn tradition, and springtime and early summer crow-eating is a corollary pastime. That said, there are a few differences this time around. The final Six Questions with Forrest has fueled speculation that some sort of state change has occurred, though frankly I see no difference in the quality of thought or solutions that have been shared publicly. If anything, theories have gotten more absurd. Few seem willing to entertain the idea that Forrest could be pulling back for his own reasons (health, family, other interests) that have nothing to do with perceived searcher progress.

That said, Forrest is at least partially responsible for the (IMO questionable) theory that there is some mysterious "hunter" who has solved all or nearly all of the clues when he posted his "gut feeling" comment last year. Adding to the hand-wringing and artificial sense of urgency is the growing list of veteran searchers who seem to be tossing in the towel, or at least severely curtailing their Fenn activities: Diggin Gypsy, Toby Younis (AGK) and KPro come to mind, all within the last 4 months.

So, you asked about retrieval delay for these confident searchers who think they've got it all figured out (examples of whom can amusingly be found searching in each of the four states). You answered your own question: SNOW. Even if you had precise GPS coordinates for the bronze box, GPS accuracy is only around 12 feet. 450 square feet of hole digging sounds like a recipe for failure. Consider your own case: you have committed some time and expense to flying to the Rockies to give it a go -- would you deliberately hobble yourself by perhaps allowing a critical clue to be obscured from sight by 4 feet of snow? So many searchers have done exactly that with the expected results: a depleted wallet and squandered vacation time. In some cases these people couldn't even get within a mile of their destinations due to impassable roads, or snow too deep to hike through.

You bring up a Forrest quote that I think a lot of searchers misconstrue: "If you know precisely where it is you can probably retrieve it in any weather." Those are two pretty strong conditionals in that statement: knowing PRECISELY where it is, and PROBABLY retrieve it. Suppose Forrest knows that it's impossible for anyone but him to know precisely where it is because the poem doesn't provide that level of precision; kinda changes the take-away from that ATF. Also, weather is not the same thing as season. Forrest has on at least four occasions told searchers not to search in wintertime when there is snow on the ground.

So I wouldn't worry too much about the chest-thumpers. The louder they crow, the more likely they'll be eating it. Anyone who really has it all figured out doesn't need to boast; they'll quietly and confidently go retrieve the chest when conditions warrant. And the way this winter has been shaping up, that's at least two months away.

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2019 15:40:52 GMT -5 @eagerlywaiting said:

I post this with trepidation, lol!  (insert nervous laughter here) I surely understand the annoyance of anyone new to the chase for those who have been here for a long time.  I hope this question is ok as I am directing it at those who have been doing this for at least a year, or longer.  I see many posts on 4 different forums, (Admittedly yes I have been a lurker for about a month, now.) of people who sound very confident in their solves.  They say things like "waiting for the snow to melt" and "I know something you don't know" etc etc.  I live very far away, but I have a trip planned for botg this summer.  My question is this.  Do people talk like this at this time of year, every year, or is there really truly something different in the air this time?  If these people really know, then why are they letting snow stop them.  FF said "if you know precisely where it is you can probably retrieve it in any weather."  If I lived close by, and felt this certain, there would be nothing to stop me from trying to get there.  Now I am one of those who believes the TC is much closer to the road than many might think, so I am not considering going DEEP into the mountains and woods and snow.  For anyone who feels confident and who thinks it's much closer to the road, why would they wait for the snow to melt?  Am I missing something?  Ok, that was more than one question.  

Thanks,
Eagerly waiting for SUMMER :-) 

Greetings Eagerlywaiting!  I had to laugh at your screen name - made me think of the quote Adopt the pace of nature; her secret is patience. ...  
I am new here also on the forum but have been in the bleachers for the last few years - just reading, listening, and thinking.  I have read Fenn's books multiple times and  checked out the websites quite extensively for awhile and then I shelve the books and take a rest - one time for almost 2 years.  It's kinda been a pass or play game for me and I have opted to pass until I could thoroughly understand the rules.  Altho I was never good at sports - I think now that I might just be ready to play. 

So..... back to your question about this time of year.  Yes - searchers seem to hibernate thru the winter and break out of their cocoons with great enthusiasm as soon as the weather seems to warm and the snows begin to melt.  Our winter here has been very long but Spring is just around the corner.  Unfortunately - I am not sure which corner that will be.

Why are people waiting to go?  Maybe cuz they are tired and weak (like in the poem) or maybe life's constraints have too great a hold on them and they are not free to go just anytime.  Or maybe it's because they are secure in believing that the TC is safe where it is hidden and that it is content to patiently wait for just the right person to come at just the right time and take it home.

I like your thoughts on being close to the road - kinda like being right under our noses or right in front of our eyes.  Keep those thoughts streaming.

I believe you will find this forum filled with friendly, helpful people.  I have to tell you that not so very long ago before I joined up here that I attempted to sign on to another major discussion forum.  My comments kept disappearing and when I inquired as to why, I was told that since I was a newbie and that my comments did not seem significant to their purpose, my posts were being deleted.  Made me wonder what their purpose was - but I don't care anyway - I just walked away and signed up here.  

Welcome and will be excited to see what fresh ideas that you may have.  Watch out tho as this dang Chase gets pretty addictive.

JP


 

[Deleted]

Again, that all makes perfect sense and I feel even more relief. Some of those people really sounded like they had this thing figured out. I will sit back and wait for summer and take the louder boasting with a huge grain of salt. Thank you for your thoughtful responses. :-)  

[Deleted]

"Adopt the pace of nature; her secret is patience" Had to google it. Emerson! I like that quote! It fits perfectly!!

[goldwatch]

8 years and a few hundred thousand searchers says there is no need to hurry.
Safety is a much bigger concern, seconded by expenses and affordability.

Here's a warning too. When you get to the Rockies, you'll see many marvelous sights. Mother nature does some miracles with the rock. And your senses are going to come alive! The warning is that you will want to go back very much.

[heidini]

Mar 3, 2019 18:05:25 GMT -5 zaphod73491 said:

The louder they crow, the more likely they'll be eating it.

Soooo funny. What a statement. 👍

[lookinup]

Enjoy every season. You can find the thrill in each of them.

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2019 15:40:52 GMT -5 @eagerlywaiting said:

I post this with trepidation, lol!  (insert nervous laughter here) I surely understand the annoyance of anyone new to the chase for those who have been here for a long time.  I hope this question is ok as I am directing it at those who have been doing this for at least a year, or longer.  I see many posts on 4 different forums, (Admittedly yes I have been a lurker for about a month, now.) of people who sound very confident in their solves.  They say things like "waiting for the snow to melt" and "I know something you don't know" etc etc.  I live very far away, but I have a trip planned for botg this summer.  My question is this.  Do people talk like this at this time of year, every year, or is there really truly something different in the air this time?  If these people really know, then why are they letting snow stop them.  FF said "if you know precisely where it is you can probably retrieve it in any weather."  If I lived close by, and felt this certain, there would be nothing to stop me from trying to get there.  Now I am one of those who believes the TC is much closer to the road than many might think, so I am not considering going DEEP into the mountains and woods and snow.  For anyone who feels confident and who thinks it's much closer to the road, why would they wait for the snow to melt?  Am I missing something?  Ok, that was more than one question.  

Thanks,
Eagerly waiting for SUMMER :-) 

Yes and your effort will be worth the cold if you can find it.

[goldwatch]

Mar 4, 2019 0:09:31 GMT -5 @drifter said:

I see many posts on different forums ... of people who sound very confident in their solves. They say things like "waiting for the snow to melt" and "I know something you don't know" etc etc.

Hi eagerlywaiting …

Totally ignore these bombastic, overly confident searchers. The more they boast about their super duper "solves", and how they're going to put an end to this hunt soon (as soon as the snow melts), the less credible they sound. Posters have been congratulating themselves for years over "solves" that they "know" are correct, but which somehow never result in the chest being found. 

The subtext of all that boasting is a plea for positive feedback. They want approval from forum readers. But their empty pronouncements actually convey their lack of confidence both in themselves and in their locational theories.

There's no hurry. That chest has been hidden for at least 8 years. It's not going to be found anytime soon.

Hey, I was one of those guys. But I have to correct you on a point, my friend.
I didn't care about approval or feedback.
And I had no lack of confidence. lol

It's funny, this quest is so much harder to get right than anyone ever expected. That's my opinion, at any rate.
But it's very rewarding anyways.

[engr101]

This may help you decide your travel dates (your choice of location may vary):

www.weatherstreet.com/city_snow_depth/87571-Taos-NM-snow-depth.htm

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2019 11:31:13 GMT -5 engr101 said:

This may help you decide your travel dates (your choice of location may vary):

www.weatherstreet.com/city_snow_depth/87571-Taos-NM-snow-depth.htm

I can't go to my site until July when the ice melt of the direct path.

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2019 10:55:45 GMT -5 goldwatch said:

Mar 4, 2019 0:09:31 GMT -5 @drifter said:

Hi eagerlywaiting …

Totally ignore these bombastic, overly confident searchers. The more they boast about their super duper "solves", and how they're going to put an end to this hunt soon (as soon as the snow melts), the less credible they sound. Posters have been congratulating themselves for years over "solves" that they "know" are correct, but which somehow never result in the chest being found. 

The subtext of all that boasting is a plea for positive feedback. They want approval from forum readers. But their empty pronouncements actually convey their lack of confidence both in themselves and in their locational theories.

There's no hurry. That chest has been hidden for at least 8 years. It's not going to be found anytime soon.

Hey, I was one of those guys. But I have to correct you on a point, my friend.
I didn't care about approval or feedback.
And I had no lack of confidence. lol

It's funny, this quest is so much harder to get right than anyone ever expected. That's my opinion, at any rate.
But it's very rewarding anyways.

Buckeye:  I luv the name.  You seem to put down in words a lot of things many of us only think about.  I respect your opinion.  And rate is relative - doesn't matter what speed you move at - only that you get There.