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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 3, 2020 0:28:48 GMT -5
Hi Jenny: was just joking. People seem to place so much significance on where others have searched, presumably not wanting to retrace steps (as if that is even possible). I've been on over 100 meteorite hunting trips, and have been (perhaps unexpectedly) successful finding space rocks within 20 feet of where others had successfully, previously done so. Which is to say, those finders failed to be thorough in searching the immediate neighborhood of their find.
So I place no significance on any places others have searched. I've calculated what it would take to grid-search the four-state area to 20-foot resolution. In 9+ years, collectively we haven't scratched the surface.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Mar 3, 2020 6:29:44 GMT -5
I've calculated what it would take to grid-search the four-state area to 20-foot resolution. How many man-hours, do you reckon? |
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Post by goldilocks on Mar 3, 2020 7:53:30 GMT -5
Jenny: challenge accepted. ;-) Let me know when you get to 50 hints for Taos. ;-) P.S.: Do you think there is a stone or log in New Mexico that is more than 66,000 links north of the northernmost limits of Santa Fe, above 5,000 feet in elevation, below 10,200 feet in elevation, has sage nearby, and is not on Native American land that Cynthia hasn't turned over? ;-) I'm actually only half-joking. And for the four that Cynthia missed, how 'bout adding the ones Sacha searched? ;-) If the treasure is in New Mexico, I will never find it. And I do mean never. I could give you more than 50 for New Mexico. Zap or anyone, did Forrest actually say "more than 66,000 links north of the northernmost limits of Santa Fe"? BTW - Yellowstone National Park is an area of 3,468.4 square miles and Taos is a total area of 5.4 square miles. If you level the playing field I'm sure Jenny and I can give you more than 50 reasons lol! |
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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 3, 2020 11:57:19 GMT -5
I've calculated what it would take to grid-search the four-state area to 20-foot resolution. How many man-hours, do you reckon? Walking at 2 miles/hour, 16 hours a day, about 2.5 million manDAYS (assuming ~300,000 square miles of search area). Assuming an annual search season of 150 days (probably generous), that's over 16,000 manyears. |
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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 3, 2020 12:58:38 GMT -5
Jenny: challenge accepted. ;-) Let me know when you get to 50 hints for Taos. ;-) P.S.: Do you think there is a stone or log in New Mexico that is more than 66,000 links north of the northernmost limits of Santa Fe, above 5,000 feet in elevation, below 10,200 feet in elevation, has sage nearby, and is not on Native American land that Cynthia hasn't turned over? ;-) I'm actually only half-joking. And for the four that Cynthia missed, how 'bout adding the ones Sacha searched? ;-) If the treasure is in New Mexico, I will never find it. And I do mean never. I could give you more than 50 for New Mexico. That's a good start, goldilocks. At some point I'll total my hints for my location, but it's in the thousands. Collectively, yes. He initially wrote more than 66,000 links north of Santa Fe. Later, when pressed to be more specific, he made the addendum about the northern limit of Santa Fe. I appreciate the humor in maintaining the density of hints on a per square mile basis (e.g. Taos vs. YNP). ;-) Still, I find it hard to understand how one could even remotely compare ANY part of NM to Yellowstone and its surrounding area. The two are not in the same league. |
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Post by theoretical on Mar 3, 2020 14:07:54 GMT -5
This conversation about number of hints to support a solve makes me wonder how many folks will feel mislead when the treasure is found, since it can presumably only be in one place. Or angry that their solve was actually better than where the treasure was. LOL.
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Post by brianu on Mar 3, 2020 14:35:08 GMT -5
I can think of a couple of ways to overcomplicate the process,heck maybe a hundred. Probably won't get all mad when it's over though, hopefully it's laughable.
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Post by goldilocks on Mar 3, 2020 14:57:40 GMT -5
This conversation about number of hints to support a solve makes me wonder how many folks will feel mislead when the treasure is found, since it can presumably only be in one place. Or angry that their solve was actually better than where the treasure was. LOL. You are so right. This conversation brings up something really important and that is confusing evidence, facts, assertions, assessments and opinions. A fact can be verified, an opinion is based on judgement. Give me the name of a place in our four state search area and I can make a case for why the treasure is there (quite easily due to the abundance of Forrest Fenn material we have at our fingertips) and it will be as good as any Yellowstone solve. I really wish I went to law school. |
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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 3, 2020 16:28:54 GMT -5
Every public solution I have seen violates multiple Forrest ATFs. I challenge anyone to point to one solution that they think violates nothing Forrest has said or written. I will happily provide two or more violations I can find for any such candidate solution.
This is why I care so little about where others have searched: most ideas are so poorly crosschecked (or people throw the 85% flag), and yet these poor souls spent money going anyway. Yes, there is great value in just the adventure and enjoyment of nature. But I think most searchers who put BOTG and commit the time and $$ actually seriously think they're going to find it, when their ideas are already shot full of holes before ever leaving home.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Mar 3, 2020 17:29:25 GMT -5
Every public solution I have seen violates multiple Forrest ATFs. I challenge anyone to point to one solution that they think violates nothing Forrest has said or written. I will happily provide two or more violations I can find for any such candidate solution. Ok. Begin it at Ouray Ice Park, Co. Take it down the Million dollar highway (south). Too far to walk, so we'll drive a distance. Put in below the home of Brown Mountain (Ironton - turn onto route 20). The meek shall inherit the earth, so we'll head away and upwards in elevation (confirmer). Draw nigh (stay left on route 20). No paddle up our creek (we leave our car at the first switchback, noting the altitude). Heavy loads and water high (iron + ton at avarado gulch). The blaze is only noticible on foot, so you're on your own here... You might object that the meek reference is from a bible verse, but it is a well known phrase. We could say we're heading away from civilisation so we need to not be meek. It's an unsatisfying 'solution', I'm just being devil's advocate because I'm bored. |
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Post by theoretical on Mar 3, 2020 20:54:27 GMT -5
Every public solution I have seen violates multiple Forrest ATFs. I challenge anyone to point to one solution that they think violates nothing Forrest has said or written. I will happily provide two or more violations I can find for any such candidate solution. Ok. Begin it at Ouray Ice Park, Co. Take it down the Million dollar highway (south). Too far to walk, so we'll drive a distance. Put in below the home of Brown Mountain (Ironton - turn onto route 20). The meek shall inherit the earth, so we'll head away and upwards in elevation (confirmer). Draw nigh (stay left on route 20). No paddle up our creek (we leave our car at the first switchback, noting the altitude). Heavy loads and water high (iron + ton at avarado gulch). The blaze is only noticible on foot, so you're on your own here... You might object that the meek reference is from a bible verse, but it is a well known phrase. We could say we're heading away from civilisation so we need to not be meek. It's an unsatisfying 'solution', I'm just being devil's advocate because I'm bored. Dave, that Million Dollar Hwy may not be the poem NPFTM but it is absolutely no place for the meek, lol. I drove it last fall from Silverton and read it rated one of the most dangerous highways in the world. Locals in Ouray told me folks freeze on the road and they have to send out emergency crews to bring them in. |
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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 4, 2020 3:22:34 GMT -5
Every public solution I have seen violates multiple Forrest ATFs. I challenge anyone to point to one solution that they think violates nothing Forrest has said or written. I will happily provide two or more violations I can find for any such candidate solution. Ok. Begin it at Ouray Ice Park, Co. Take it down the Million dollar highway (south). Too far to walk, so we'll drive a distance. Put in below the home of Brown Mountain (Ironton - turn onto route 20). The meek shall inherit the earth, so we'll head away and upwards in elevation (confirmer). Draw nigh (stay left on route 20). No paddle up our creek (we leave our car at the first switchback, noting the altitude). Heavy loads and water high (iron + ton at avarado gulch). The blaze is only noticible on foot, so you're on your own here... You might object that the meek reference is from a bible verse, but it is a well known phrase. We could say we're heading away from civilisation so we need to not be meek. It's an unsatisfying 'solution', I'm just being devil's advocate because I'm bored. Ouray Ice Park is one of the more popular WWWHs -- I even considered it back in 2015 but couldn't make it work. (I actually like Icebox Canyon in YNP better, if one is going the halting-water/ice route, but both are "acceptable" candidates). One problem is: how is Ouray anything more than a dart throw? How does the poem tell you THAT WWWH is *the* one over all the others (like Icebox Canyon)? Is it only because subsequent workable clue solutions can be found nearby? I guess what I'm harping on is, how could one "nail down" that clue with confidence?
If canyon down (south) is the Million Dollar Highway and is the answer to clue #2, then I assume either your "Not far, but too far to walk" is clue #3, or it's not a clue and clue #3 is "Put in below the home of Brown." In either case, if Brown Mountain is your home of Brown, why did those who solved 2 clues fail to solve the 3rd? Brown Mountain seems like a no-brainer for anyone using the Million Dollar Highway as their canyon down. Yet people were stuck at solving only two clues for YEARS.
"The meek shall inherit the earth, so we'll head away and upwards in elevation (confirmer)."
I'm not making the connection between inheriting the earth (no objection so far) and heading away and upwards in elevation? Perhaps the upwards in elevation is just incidental, and your just referring to leaving the civilization of Ouray for the wilds, and that requires not being meek.
As for drawing nigh meaning to "stay left," I reject that erroneous definition of nigh. Nigh in the context of the poem means "near." (Nobody says "drawing left".) I realize many searchers think nigh and left are synonymous, but they aren't.
An important problem with this solution is that I don't see how the clues are going to navigate you to within several steps of the treasure's location. There is nothing to provide that level of precision. Perhaps you lay that responsibility on the blaze, and if so I can't critique any further since the nature of the blaze is not known.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Mar 4, 2020 4:58:45 GMT -5
Who says it isn't a dart-throw (there is another quote that implies you won't know for sure you're right until you have the chest plus how can you have two clues correct and not complete the hunt)?
Who says anyone's mentioned Brown Mountain directly to Fenn?
Who says he didn't 'bend' the drawing nigh quote?
And here was me thinking we'd be discussing pinyon nuts...
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Post by zaphod73491 on Mar 4, 2020 20:43:46 GMT -5
Who says it isn't a dart-throw (there is another quote that implies you won't know for sure you're right until you have the chest plus how can you have two clues correct and not complete the hunt)? Who says anyone's mentioned Brown Mountain directly to Fenn? Who says he didn't 'bend' the drawing nigh quote? And here was me thinking we'd be discussing pinyon nuts... "The person who finds the treasure will have studied the poem over and over, and thought, and analyzed and moved with confidence. Nothing about it will be accidental."
"Dear Forrest, You tell us that we should find ‘where warm waters halt’ before trying to solve any of the other clues. Imagining that we haven’t seen the rest of the poem, and all we have to go on is: a. “begin it where warm waters halt” and b. “somewhere in the mountains north of Santa Fe” Do you think that we can confidently determine the starting place for your treasure trail? ~ Steve"
FF: "No, if all you have to go on are those two clues you cannot proceed with confidence."
"I would like to reiterate: Please go back to the poem and look at maps for your answers. Not every noun in TTOTC is a hint. If you can’t solve the first clue you should not spend your money searching. My guess is that the person who is successful will very quietly solve the clues and walk to the treasure with a smile on their face."
"The most common mistake that I see searchers make is that they underestimate the importance of the first clue. If you don’t have that one nailed down you might as well stay home and play Canasta. f"
These four quotes seem to stress the necessity of confidently nailing down the starting point. This implies it can be "solved," not merely guessed at. And the following quotes suggest that simply having a hunch about the answers to clues is not going to cut it:
1. "Playing a hunch is nearly always fraught with disappointment, especially if the stakes are high. A searcher who guesses through life is destined to carry a thin wallet. f"
2. "Although others were at the starting point I think their arrival was an aberration and they were oblivious to its connection with the poem. Playing a hunch is not worth much in the search ..."
3. "There’s a couple of people that have 'hunches.' The world's worst thing is a hunch."
Now, I have no problem with someone making an astute guess as to the correct WWWH, and then discovering that the other clues unambiguously fall into place from there, thus providing the necessary confidence that the guess was correct. But if the supporting later clue answers are all generic or vague (canyons, creeks, left turns, right turns, etc.), then the lack of specificity doesn't add anything. There are canyons, creeks and turns all over the Rockies. Using the "throwing darts at a map" analogy, it would be like throwing three random darts, and then announcing that the first one had to be WWWH because the three darts formed a perfect triangle.
"Who says anyone's mentioned Brown Mountain directly to Fenn?"
I'd say anyone using Ouray and Million Dollar Highway as their first two clues would have to be blind not to see Brown Mountain on the map. Worse, Brown Mountain could be solved out of sequence (as could any geographic feature that actually has Brown in its name), providing an easy shortcut.
Ouray is still better than a lot of WWWHs that people use -- Ojo Caliente, for instance, is an awful choice, and yet probably a thousand searchers use it because of the River Bathing story.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Mar 5, 2020 2:03:13 GMT -5
Ok. Ouray means 'arrow', our journey starts with an arrow, mirroring Forrest's first arrowhead find. Ouray was originally called Uncompahgre, in some translations this means hot water springs Chief Ouray was married to... "Until someone finds the treasure they will not know for sure that they have discovered the first clue." Point taken on Brown mountain, so let's swap that out for Ironton for the home of Brown, which is better disguised, and a reference to sliding down rusty fire escapes. And so on. None of this is the point. It's a nonsense solution knocked up in a few minutes from a long-ago abandoned idea. Most people aren't going to post their best ideas on here, including me or you, which makes using blogs a rather frustrating and sub-optimal experience. A related frustration is that you're deep into confirmation bias territory. Doesn't mean your solution is wrong, but what if you make multiple trips to your location and come up empty handed? Walk away from the chase because it was in another state after all? That would be a crushing loss to the hunt. I'd like to guard against that  Which leads me to your statement about having hundreds of confirmers. Just because someone mentions a state, or favourite part of the Rockies many times, doesn't mean it's a hint! Which relates to the point above, we won't be able to judge your solution by anything other than the outcome. I hope someone finds it this year, it's driving me loopy! Best of luck with your search. |
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