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Post by theoretical on Feb 12, 2020 12:25:42 GMT -5
After 9-10 years of the chase, the body of clues and hints that Forrest has released is quite large. As a data analyst /statistician by trade, I have been trained to prioritize or give a weight to data elements in constructing an analysis. This is difficult with Forrest. I’m not sure a weighting system is possible with him, which perhaps leads to confirmation bias and simply choosing those statements that best fit our thinking.
I’m wondering how others are prioritizing what FF has said? Is there a FF book, interview, set of answers, etc, that you find more valuable than others?
My weighting by highest priority is roughly:
1. The poem
2. Definitive statements he has made.
3. TTOTC followed by TFTW
4. Ambiguous or contradictory statements he has made in interviews.
I personally rank the questions and answers with Jenny quite high. I’m of the opinion that FF provided a MAJOR clue, of course as well as other hints, in his answers to these.
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Post by goldilocks on Feb 12, 2020 13:40:29 GMT -5
I find using a timeline of Forrest's life is helpful to get an overview of where he was and what he was doing at different stages of his life. Cynthia has a great one on her blog that I've been adding to over time. I've added things like when the FBI raided his house, when he acquired his infamous belt buckle etc. The Scrabooks are definitely helpful in getting insight into the relationships he's had over the years and add to the backstory. Live interviews are useful because he may let something slip by speaking off the cuff but on the other hand, Jenny's Q's are important because he had time to formulate his wording and said exactly what he wanted to say to us.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Feb 12, 2020 15:37:29 GMT -5
After 9-10 years of the chase, the body of clues and hints that Forrest has released is quite large. As a data analyst /statistician by trade, I have been trained to prioritize or give a weight to data elements in constructing an analysis. This is difficult with Forrest. I’m not sure a weighting system is possible with him, which perhaps leads to confirmation bias and simply choosing those statements that best fit our thinking. I’m wondering how others are prioritizing what FF has said? Is there a FF book, interview, set of answers, etc, that you find more valuable than others? My weighting by highest priority is roughly: 1. The poem 2. Definitive statements he has made. 3. TTOTC followed by TFTW 4. Ambiguous or contradictory statements he has made in interviews. I personally rank the questions and answers with Jenny quite high. I’m of the opinion that FF provided a MAJOR clue, of course as well as other hints, in his answers to these. Exactly this. I tend to weight the written answers higher than spoken/off the cuff remarks. Also weight ideas he has mentioned more than once very highly (e.g. the first clue is WWWH). Regarding the ambiguous or contradictory answers, I use a similar idea, based on the set up of a courtroom. Find all the quotes 'for' and all those 'against' and weigh the evidence. This process for example leads me to believe it is a breadcrumb type trail rather than a draw a shape on a map type. |
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Post by astree on Feb 13, 2020 7:54:35 GMT -5
theoretical High on your original list, i would add www.oldsarafetradingco.com , Especially the early versions when the hunt started atree |
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Post by crm114 on Feb 13, 2020 12:04:59 GMT -5
1 Poem. Any solution that does not have clues that can be tied to the poem is rejected.
2 TTOTC.
3 Map in TFTW
4 Old Santa Fe Trading Company website
5 TFTW and OUAW
6 Scrapbooks
7 Written quotes. Forrest gets mail, six questions, etc. He had time to think about these and phrase them exactly as he wanted. I think he can cleverly include hints.
8 Official hints. These are things he mainly gave out prior to 2016 or so, such as between 5000 and 10,200 feet elevation as listed on Dal or Jenny's sites. I don't find these particularly helpful, but any solution must match them or it is simply wrong. This also includes safety hints that he has thrown out since, such as not near the Rio Grande.
9 Verbal interviews. He has less time to think about his answers and may misspeak (pinyon). He may also let things slip, though. He has accidentally said buried a couple of of times without correction. Whether this is an unconscious slip or just a mistake is subject to interpretation.
It's interesting to rank things like this. Items 7 and 9 seem to be what we collectively talk about the most, but when ranking them, I don't rank them that high 🤔. Perhaps it's human nature to hope direct questions have more value than Forrest's free thoughts.
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Post by brianu on Feb 13, 2020 12:42:16 GMT -5
He said map poem and treasure. What's left to wait for?
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Post by crm114 on Feb 13, 2020 13:13:33 GMT -5
He said map poem and treasure. What's left to wait for? If you mean the poem and map are all you need, I believe that is true. It's instructive to read the forward to OUAW, however. Doug Preston describe their interactions on how hard an earlier version of the poem was and cautioned Forrest on making it too easy. How in the world do you make a poem hard, but not too hard? My theory is that Forrest probably erred on the side of hard. Through scrapbooks and other info, he decided to release hints that make it easier once he was comfortable that no one would solve it easily. |
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kk
Junior Member
Posts: 89
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Post by kk on Feb 13, 2020 17:10:13 GMT -5
I don't think prioritize is the right method for me.
I do think there is a lot of wisdom in this statement:
"Indecision is the key to flexibility."
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Post by edgewalker on Feb 14, 2020 9:04:05 GMT -5
1 Poem. Any solution that does not have clues that can be tied to the poem is rejected. 2 TTOTC. 3 Map in TFTW 4 Old Santa Fe Trading Company website 5 TFTW and OUAW 6 Scrapbooks 7 Written quotes. Forrest gets mail, six questions, etc. He had time to think about these and phrase them exactly as he wanted. I think he can cleverly include hints. 8 Official hints. These are things he mainly gave out prior to 2016 or so, such as between 5000 and 10,200 feet elevation as listed on Dal or Jenny's sites. I don't find these particularly helpful, but any solution must match them or it is simply wrong. This also includes safety hints that he has thrown out since, such as not near the Rio Grande. 9 Verbal interviews. He has less time to think about his answers and may misspeak (pinyon). He may also let things slip, though. He has accidentally said buried a couple of of times without correction. Whether this is an unconscious slip or just a mistake is subject to interpretation. It's interesting to rank things like this. Items 7 and 9 seem to be what we collectively talk about the most, but when ranking them, I don't rank them that high 🤔. Perhaps it's human nature to hope direct questions have more value than Forrest's free thoughts. |
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Post by edgewalker on Feb 14, 2020 9:16:35 GMT -5
Sorry, new to this forum. Wanted to show the quote above and then add this.
I like this approach. I do wonder a bit (ok, more than a bit) that Forrest clear hints are actually distractions. For example his clue "above 5000 feet and below 12000 feet in elevation" has been taken at face value. I would be inclined to do that if he had said "above 5000 feet in elevation and below 12000 feet in elevation". The way he wrote it could be two statements. 1. Above 5000 feet 2. Below 12000 feet in elevation. This opens 5000 feet to numerous interpretations. Above a graveyard with 2500 people buried there? Above a town of 2500? Above meaning north not elevation? A mile is 5280 feet so could this be a mile above something? A geographical location with the word "mile" in it?
I believe some of his narrowing clues have narrowed my thinking at times and I find myself going back and trying to shake free of this if I can find any way to do so.
This is both frustrating and liberating. On one hand it makes an already huge search area bigger. On the other hand it is a big herd looking in a defined area for many years with no success. Maybe the defined area isn't correct.
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Post by davebakedpotato on Feb 14, 2020 10:50:05 GMT -5
Sorry, new to this forum. Wanted to show the quote above and then add this. I like this approach. I do wonder a bit (ok, more than a bit) that Forrest clear hints are actually distractions. For example his clue "above 5000 feet and below 12000 feet in elevation" has been taken at face value. I would be inclined to do that if he had said "above 5000 feet in elevation and below 12000 feet in elevation". The way he wrote it could be two statements. 1. Above 5000 feet 2. Below 12000 feet in elevation. This opens 5000 feet to numerous interpretations. Above a graveyard with 2500 people buried there? Above a town of 2500? Above meaning north not elevation? A mile is 5280 feet so could this be a mile above something? A geographical location with the word "mile" in it? I believe some of his narrowing clues have narrowed my thinking at times and I find myself going back and trying to shake free of this if I can find any way to do so. This is both frustrating and liberating. On one hand it makes an already huge search area bigger. On the other hand it is a big herd looking in a defined area for many years with no success. Maybe the defined area isn't correct. Check your upper elevation... |
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Post by edgewalker on Feb 14, 2020 10:56:45 GMT -5
Sorry, new to this forum. Wanted to show the quote above and then add this. I like this approach. I do wonder a bit (ok, more than a bit) that Forrest clear hints are actually distractions. For example his clue "above 5000 feet and below 12000 feet in elevation" has been taken at face value. I would be inclined to do that if he had said "above 5000 feet in elevation and below 12000 feet in elevation". The way he wrote it could be two statements. 1. Above 5000 feet 2. Below 12000 feet in elevation. This opens 5000 feet to numerous interpretations. Above a graveyard with 2500 people buried there? Above a town of 2500? Above meaning north not elevation? A mile is 5280 feet so could this be a mile above something? A geographical location with the word "mile" in it? I believe some of his narrowing clues have narrowed my thinking at times and I find myself going back and trying to shake free of this if I can find any way to do so. This is both frustrating and liberating. On one hand it makes an already huge search area bigger. On the other hand it is a big herd looking in a defined area for many years with no success. Maybe the defined area isn't correct. Check your upper elevation... Thanks, 10200 not 12000. |
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Post by zaphod73491 on Feb 14, 2020 13:56:21 GMT -5
I wouldn't overthink the elevation constraints. Forrest has said, paraphrasing, you'll find no subterfuge from him. 5000'-10200' is not really constraining the problem since the majority of the Rockies are above 5,000 feet, and there are few roads that will get you above 9,700 feet (and there's no way Forrest gained 500 or more feet of elevation carrying 22+ pound loads twice in an afternoon nearly 2 miles above sea level).
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Post by thrillchaser on Feb 16, 2020 21:09:27 GMT -5
I think it's important to prioritize the type of information when deciding on a solution.
facts first and then interpretation. these are scattered throughout all forrest writings and words. I'll take the fact of two trips in one afternoon from a mw q/a over a story in the ttotc where I might interpret it to say it's 5 miles one way. if you get what I mean.
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Post by Jenny on Feb 18, 2020 9:21:06 GMT -5
I feel it is also important to determine the goal for prioritizing. As ThrillChaser mentioned later facts by Dal sharing emails and the MW Questions are more important than believed hints thought in the book. Hints in the book cannot be confirmed....but those definitive answers are. So depending on what the goal is for prioritizing depends on what is positioned first on my list.
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